Convection-permitting simulations reveal robust intensification of tropical cyclone extreme precipitation due to anthropogenic warming

Abstract

Understanding how global warming affects tropical cyclone (TC) intensity and precipitation for target regions is essential to preparing for associated damages but detailed processes remain uncertain. This study provides a first quantification of anthropogenic influences on TC characteristics affecting South Korea using convection-permitting model (CPM) simulations (3 km resolution). For the observed four recent TCs that strongly affected South Korea, CPM simulations were performed under current (ALL) and pre-industrial conditions (NAT). The observed sea surface temperature and lateral boundary conditions were used for ALL while changes attributable to human influences (estimated using CMIP6 multimodel simulations) were removed from observed boundary conditions for NAT runs. ALL experiments captured the observed TC intensity and precipitation reasonably. After removing human influences, TC intensity and precipitation were reduced in NAT experiments. Importantly, areas with extreme precipitation (i.e., having precipitation larger than 150 mm) were found to expand by 16~37% in ALL compared to NAT, which was induced by an enhanced upward motion near the TC core and an increase of background water vapor in line with warming. Further, the role of increased moisture was found to become important as TC moves to mid-latitudes. This study provides new insights into how greenhouse warming can intensify TC-induced extreme precipitation over East Asia.