Sub-Seasonal Variability of ENSO Teleconnections in Western North America and Its Prediction Skill
SCIE
SCOPUS
- Title
- Sub-Seasonal Variability of ENSO Teleconnections in Western North America and Its Prediction Skill
- Authors
- Park, Chang-Hyun; Choi, Jung; Son, Seok-Woo; Kim, Daehyun; Yeh, Sang-Wook; Kug, Jong-Seong
- Date Issued
- 2023-03
- Publisher
- AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
- Abstract
- The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) significantly affects the wintertime surface climate in western North America (WNA) via the Pacific/North American-like teleconnection pattern. Here, we show that the ENSO teleconnections over the WNA have significant sub-seasonal variation despite the persistence of ENSO-related tropical sea surface temperature anomalies throughout the entire winter. The ENSO-WNA teleconnections become substantially weakened in mid-winter, considerably weaker than those in early and late winter. This mid-winter weakening of the ENSO-WNA teleconnections is attributable to the convection over the equatorial Indian Ocean. In mid-December of El Nino winters, the anomalously-enhanced convection develops over the equatorial Indian Ocean and excites the teleconnection pattern with a 2-week time lag. This teleconnection largely opposes the Pacific/North American-like teleconnection pattern that is induced by anomalous convection over the equatorial central Pacific. Such sub-seasonal variation of ENSO teleconnections is poorly predicted by multi-model hindcasts, affecting the mid-latitude prediction skill. It particularly results in a poorer prediction skill of WNA surface air temperature in mid-winter than in late winter. This result highlights a need to better simulate the ENSO-related tropical convection and the associated teleconnections in the model to improve the long-lead prediction of the WNA surface climate.
- URI
- https://oasis.postech.ac.kr/handle/2014.oak/123638
- DOI
- 10.1029/2022JD037985
- ISSN
- 2169-897X
- Article Type
- Article
- Citation
- JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, vol. 128, no. 6, 2023-03
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