실물옵션을 이용한 OLED TV 사업의 투자가치평가 및 최적 투자시기 결정

Abstract

We evaluate the economic value and the optimal investment timing of OLED TV by using the real options analysis. In fact, DCF has been used for valuing investment in the general cases because it is easy to understand and calculate. However, there are two strong assumptions. One is the numbers which is currently speculated will not be changeable. Another one is there is no room for further improvement once investment valuation is finished. These assumptions can’t reflect the future uncertainty, which makes the DCF results unrealistic. In the contrast, the real option method is to evaluate investment including the opportunity to modify the first draft of the investment. Due to its flexibility, it can increase the value of the investment. In this paper, launching the OLED TV itself is equivalent to the American Call Option, which means delaying option is only thing we consider and binomial lattice approach was employed. As a result, the project value with option is greater than the conventional valuation methods as well as delaying the investment is more favorable. Therefore, real option model enable the management to make decision strategically according to the future states.