Coordinated EV Adoption: Double-Digit Reductions in Emissions and Fuel Use for $40/Vehicle-Year

Abstract

Adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) would affect the costs and sources of electricity and the United States efficiency requirements for conventional vehicles (CVs). We model EV adoption scenarios in each of six regions of the Eastern Interconnection, containing 70% of the United States population. We develop electricity system optimization models at the multidecade, day-ahead, and hour-ahead time scales, incorporating spatial wind energy modeling, endogenous modeling of CV efficiencies, projections for EV efficiencies, and projected CV and EV costs. We find two means to reduce total consumer expenditure (TCE): (i) controlling charge timing and (ii) unlinking the fuel economy regulations for CVs from EVs. Although EVs provide minimal direct GHG reductions, controlled charging provides load flexibility, lowering the cost of renewable electricity. Without EVs, a 33% renewable electricity standard (RES) would cost $193/vehicle-year more than the reference case (10% RES). Combining a 33% RES, EVs with controlled charging and unlinking would reduce combined electric- and vehicle-sector CO2 emissions by 27% and reduce gasoline consumption by 59% for $40/vehicle-year more than the reference case. Coordinating EV adoption with adoption of controlled charging, unlinked fuel economy regulations, and renewable electricity standards would provide low-cost reductions in emissions and fuel usage.