Ore Composition's Impact on Smelting Profitability: An Optimum Pricing Index Model for Long-Term Nickel Ore Feedstock Purchasing Agreements

Abstract

Global Nickel (Ni) smelters' have been experiencing profit losses for nearly a decade due to the 2008 recession still impacting the industry, oversupply, and fluctuating ore quality. This paper proposes to aid the Ni smelters with the lattermost issue, presenting an optimum pricing index model for purchasing raw Ni ore materials. The model is developed using data from a major Ni smelter in operation in Korea, including parameters such as revenues, investment expenses, and ore purchasing costs and the impact Ni and Iron (Fe) content variation has on them. In contrast, existing published Ni price forecasting models are based on external variables (e.g., GDP) and are intended for profit forecasting versus contractual agreements. In executing a Monte-Carlo simulation of 1000 possible life-cycle costs analysis with and without the use of the proposed model, the model increased the likelihood of the smelter earning a profit by approximately 5% with an average approximate increase of $50 million. As such, the proposed index model provides new Ni and nonferrous metals smelters material quality fluctuation risk mitigation. Although this model is presented for the Ni smelting process, the findings could theoretically be applied to any long-term procurement activity with variable quality and market conditions.