Predicting El Nino Beyond 1-year Lead: Effect of the Western Hemisphere Warm Pool

Abstract

Due to the profound impact of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on global climate and weather, extensive research has been devoted to its prediction. However, prediction accuracy based on observation is still insufficient and largely limited to less than one year of lead time. In this study, we demonstrate the possibility that anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) warming (cooling) in the Western Hemisphere Warm Pool (WHWP, a.k.a. Atlantic Warm Pool) near the Intra-Americas Sea (IAS), which is the second largest warm pool on the planet, contributes to the initiation of La Nina (El Nino) with a 17-month lag time. SST anomalies in WHWP in late boreal summer contribute significantly to the emergence of the Pacific meridional mode (PMM) via interaction between the ocean and atmosphere over the subtropical North Pacific during the subsequent winter and spring. Near-equatorial surface wind anomalies associated with the PMM can further trigger ENSO through the dynamics of the equatorial oceanic waves. Thus, this observational analysis presents a clear step-by-step explanation about the influence of WHWP on ENSO development with a 17-month lead time.